Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, November 29th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the somewhat of a holiday weekend. Stocks are rebounding from Friday’s heavy selling, pushing the Dow up 114 points and the Nasdaq up 237 points. The bond market is currently down 21/32 (1.55%), but late gains Friday should allow this morning’s rates to be close to Friday’s early levels. If you saw an afternoon improvement in pricing before closing, you should see an increase of the same size in this morning’s rates.

21/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.55%

114


Dow


35,014

237


NASDAQ


15,728

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Negative


COVID-19 Matters

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today. This morning’s bond market losses come as no surprise. We are seeing a correction from Friday’s significant reaction to the new COVID variant headlines. Friday’s big rally was fueled by those headlines, but with many traders home for the extended holiday weekend, trading was thin. This allowed a stronger move in the markets than we likely would have seen if the news came on a regular trading day. Now that trading desks are back to full staff, bonds are forced to give back some of Friday’s gains.

High


Unknown


None

The rest of the week has five monthly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to the Fed Beige Book and a congressional appearance by Fed Chairman Powell. Two of those economic releases are considered to be highly important and can heavily affect the markets.

Medium


Unknown


Fed Talk

Tomorrow has two events taking place, starting with Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Coronavirus Aid Act. He is scheduled to appear at 10:00 AM ET, but he often releases his prepared statement before actually starting his testimony. The markets listen carefully anytime he speaks publicly, especially during congressional testimony. That means this event has the potential to be a market-mover, causing noticeable volatility in the financial and mortgage markets.

Medium


Unknown


Consumer Confidence Index

Also late tomorrow morning is the release of November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). This Conference Board index helps us track consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer's confidence in their own financial and employment situation is strong, it is thought that they are more apt to make larger purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and strength in it makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Traders are expecting to see the index slip a couple points from October’s 113.8, meaning surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. The weaker the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates. Although, the markets will likely be much more focused on Chairman Powell’s testimony than this report.

High


Unknown


None

Overall, Friday is the best candidate for most important day for rates due to the extremely influential Employment report being released, but there is a good chance of seeing noticeable movement in pricing multiple days. The calmest day may be Thursday unless there is a big surprise in the weekly unemployment figures. With such a busy week, watching the markets carefully would be a good idea if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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